Welcome to the Rnaught web application!

Rnaught is an R package and web application for estimating the basic reproduction number of infectious diseases. For information about using this application, view the Help tab. To learn more about the package, visit the online documentation or GitHub repository. Technical details about the estimators featured in this project can be found in the reference article.

What is the basic reproduction number?

The basic reproduction number, denoted R0, describes the expected number of infections caused by a single infectious individual. It assumes that all individuals in a given population are susceptible to the disease, and that no preventive measures (such as lockdowns or vaccinations) have been enforced. As such, it is a useful indicator of the transmissibility of a disease during the early stages of its detection.

If R0 < 1, then the disease will eventually die out. On the other hand, if R0 > 1, the rate at which the disease spreads is exponential. Typically, it is difficult to determine R0 precisely, due to uncertainty in information relating to the spread of the disease. Therefore, many estimation methods exist, each based on their own models and yielding different estimates. It is the responsibility of public health officials to employ the most appropriate estimator given the situation at hand.