#' Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment (IDEA) #' #' This function implements a least squares estimation method of R0 due to #' Fisman et al. (PloS One, 2013). See details for implementation notes. #' #' This method is closely related to that implemented in [id()]. The method is #' based on an incidence decay model. The estimate of R0 is the value which #' minimizes the sum of squares between observed case counts and case counts #' expected under the model. #' #' This method is based on an approximation of the SIR model, which is most #' valid at the beginning of an epidemic. The method assumes that the mean of #' the serial distribution (sometimes called the serial interval) is known. The #' final estimate can be quite sensitive to this value, so sensitivity testing #' is strongly recommended. Users should be careful about units of time (e.g., #' are counts observed daily or weekly?) when implementing. #' #' @param cases Vector of case counts. The vector must be of length at least two #' and only contain positive integers. #' @param mu Mean of the serial distribution. This must be a positive number. #' The value should match the case counts in time units. For example, if case #' counts are weekly and the serial distribution has a mean of seven days, #' then `mu` should be set to `1`. If case counts are daily and the serial #' distribution has a mean of seven days, then `mu` should be set to `7`. #' #' @return An estimate of the basic reproduction number (R0). #' #' @references [Fisman et al. (PloS One, 2013)]( #' https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0083622) #' #' @seealso [id()] for a similar method. #' #' @export #' #' @examples #' # Weekly data. #' cases <- c(1, 4, 10, 5, 3, 4, 19, 3, 3, 14, 4) #' #' # Obtain R0 when the serial distribution has a mean of five days. #' idea(cases, mu = 5 / 7) #' #' # Obtain R0 when the serial distribution has a mean of three days. #' idea(cases, mu = 3 / 7) idea <- function(cases, mu) { s <- seq_along(cases) / mu x1 <- sum(s) x2 <- sum(s^2) x3 <- log(cases) y1 <- x2 * sum(x3 / s) - x1 * sum(x3) y2 <- x2 * length(cases) - x1^2 exp(y1 / y2) }