#' WP method background function WP_known #' #' This is a background/internal function called by \code{WP}. It computes the #' maximum likelihood estimator of R0 assuming that the serial distribution is #' known and finite discrete. #' #' @param NT Vector of case counts. #' @param p Discretized version of the serial distribution. #' #' @return The function returns the maximum likelihood estimator of R0. #' #' @noRd WP_known <- function(NT, p) { k <- length(p) TT <- length(NT) - 1 mu_t <- rep(0, TT) for (i in 1:TT) { Nt <- NT[i:max(1, i - k + 1)] mu_t[i] <- sum(p[1:min(k, i)] * Nt) } Rhat <- sum(NT[-1]) / sum(mu_t) return(Rhat) } #' WP method background function WP_unknown #' #' This is a background/internal function called by \code{WP}. It computes the #' maximum likelihood estimator of R0 assuming that the serial distribution is #' unknown but comes from a discretized gamma distribution. The function then #' implements a simple grid search algorithm to obtain the maximum likelihood #' estimator of R0 as well as the gamma parameters. #' #' @param NT Vector of case counts. #' @param B Length of grid for shape and scale (grid search parameter). #' @param shape.max Maximum shape value (grid \code{search} parameter). #' @param scale.max Maximum scale value (grid \code{search} parameter). #' @param tol cutoff value for cumulative distribution function of the serial #' distribution (defaults to 0.999). #' #' @return The function returns \code{Rhat}, the maximum likelihood estimator of #' R0, as well as the maximum likelihood estimator of the discretized #' serial distribution given by \code{p} (the probability mass function) #' and \code{range.max} (the distribution has support on the integers #' one to \code{range.max}). The function also returns \code{resLL} (all #' values of the log-likelihood) at \code{shape} (grid for shape #' parameter) and at \code{scale} (grid for scale parameter), as well as #' \code{resR0} (the full vector of maximum likelihood estimators), #' \code{JJ} (the locations for the likelihood for these), and \code{J0} #' (the location for the maximum likelihood estimator \code{Rhat}). If #' \code{JJ} and \code{J0} are not the same, this means that the maximum #' likelihood estimator is not unique. #' #' @importFrom stats pgamma qgamma #' #' @noRd WP_unknown <- function(NT, B = 100, shape.max = 10, scale.max = 10, tol = 0.999) { shape <- seq(0, shape.max, length.out = B + 1) scale <- seq(0, scale.max, length.out = B + 1) shape <- shape[-1] scale <- scale[-1] resLL <- matrix(0, B, B) resR0 <- matrix(0, B, B) for (i in 1:B) for (j in 1:B) { range.max <- ceiling(qgamma(tol, shape = shape[i], scale = scale[j])) p <- diff(pgamma(0:range.max, shape = shape[i], scale = scale[j])) p <- p / sum(p) mle <- WP_known(NT, p) resLL[i, j] <- computeLL(p, NT, mle) resR0[i, j] <- mle } J0 <- which.max(resLL) R0hat <- resR0[J0] JJ <- which(resLL == resLL[J0], arr.ind = TRUE) range.max <- ceiling(qgamma(tol, shape = shape[JJ[1]], scale = scale[JJ[2]])) p <- diff(pgamma(0:range.max, shape = shape[JJ[1]], scale = scale[JJ[2]])) p <- p / sum(p) return(list(Rhat = R0hat, J0 = J0, ll = resLL, Rs = resR0, scale = scale, shape = shape, JJ = JJ, p = p, range.max = range.max)) } #' WP method background function computeLL #' #' This is a background/internal function called by \code{WP}. It computes the #' log-likelihood. #' #' @param p Discretized version of the serial distribution. #' @param NT Vector of case counts. #' @param R0 Basic reproductive ratio. #' #' @return This function returns the log-likelihood at the input variables and #' parameters. #' #' @noRd computeLL <- function(p, NT, R0) { k <- length(p) TT <- length(NT) - 1 mu_t <- rep(0, TT) for (i in 1:TT) { Nt <- NT[i:max(1, i - k + 1)] mu_t[i] <- sum(p[1:min(k, i)] * Nt) } mu_t <- R0 * mu_t LL <- sum(NT[-1] * log(mu_t)) - sum(mu_t) return(LL) }