#' WP method #' #' This function implements an R0 estimation due to White and Pagano (Statistics #' in Medicine, 2008). The method is based on maximum likelihood estimation in a #' Poisson transmission model. See details for important implementation notes. #' #' This method is based on a Poisson transmission model, and hence may be most #' most valid at the beginning of an epidemic. In their model, the serial #' distribution is assumed to be discrete with a finite number of posible #' values. In this implementation, if \code{mu} is not {NA}, the serial #' distribution is taken to be a discretized version of a gamma distribution #' with mean \code{mu}, shape parameter one, and largest possible value based on #' parameter \code{tol}. When \code{mu} is \code{NA}, the function implements a #' grid search algorithm to find the maximum likelihood estimator over all #' possible gamma distributions with unknown mean and variance, restricting #' these to a prespecified grid (see \code{search} parameter). #' #' When the serial distribution is known (i.e., \code{mu} is not \code{NA}), #' sensitivity testing of \code{mu} is strongly recommended. If the serial #' distribution is unknown (i.e., \code{mu} is \code{NA}), the likelihood #' function can be flat near the maximum, resulting in numerical instability of #' the optimizer. When \code{mu} is \code{NA}, the implementation takes #' considerably longer to run. Users should be careful about units of time #' (e.g., are counts observed daily or weekly?) when implementing. #' #' The model developed in White and Pagano (2008) is discrete, and hence the #' serial distribution is finite discrete. In our implementation, the input #' value \code{mu} is that of a continuous distribution. The algorithm #' discretizes this input when \code{mu} is not \code{NA}, and hence the mean of #' the serial distribution returned in the list \code{SD} will differ from #' \code{mu} somewhat. That is to say, if the user notices that the input #' \code{mu} and output mean of \code{SD} are different, this is to be expected, #' and is caused by the discretization. #' #' @param NT Vector of case counts. #' @param mu Mean of the serial distribution (needs to match case counts in time #' units; for example, if case counts are weekly and the serial #' distribution has a mean of seven days, then \code{mu} should be set #' to one). The default value of \code{mu} is set to \code{NA}. #' @param search List of default values for the grid search algorithm. The list #' includes three elements: the first is \code{B}, which is the #' length of the grid in one dimension; the second is #' \code{scale.max}, which is the largest possible value of the #' scale parameter; and the third is \code{shape.max}, which is #' the largest possible value of the shape parameter. Defaults to #' \code{B=100, scale.max=10, shape.max=10}. For both shape and #' scale, the smallest possible value is 1/\code{B}. #' @param tol Cutoff value for cumulative distribution function of the #' pre-discretization gamma serial distribution. Defaults to 0.999 #' (i.e. in the discretization, the maximum is chosen such that the #' original gamma distribution has cumulative probability of no more #' than 0.999 at this maximum). #' #' @return \code{WP} returns a list containing the following components: #' \code{Rhat} is the estimate of R0, and \code{SD} is either the #' discretized serial distribution (if \code{mu} is not \code{NA}), or #' the estimated discretized serial distribution (if \code{mu} is #' \code{NA}). The list also returns the variable \code{check}, which is #' equal to the number of non-unique maximum likelihood estimators. The #' serial distribution \code{SD} is returned as a list made up of #' \code{supp} (the support of the distribution) and \code{pmf} (the #' probability mass function). #' #' @examples #' # Weekly data. #' NT <- c(1, 4, 10, 5, 3, 4, 19, 3, 3, 14, 4) #' #' # Obtain R0 when the serial distribution has a mean of five days. #' res1 <- WP(NT, mu = 5 / 7) #' res1$Rhat #' #' # Obtain R0 when the serial distribution has a mean of three days. #' res2 <- WP(NT, mu = 3 / 7) #' res2$Rhat #' #' # Obtain R0 when the serial distribution is unknown. #' # NOTE: This implementation will take longer to run. #' res3 <- WP(NT) #' res3$Rhat #' #' # Find the mean of the estimated serial distribution. #' serial <- res3$SD #' sum(serial$supp * serial$pmf) #' #' @importFrom stats pexp qexp #' #' @export WP <- function(NT, mu = NA, search = list(B = 100, shape.max = 10, scale.max = 10), tol = 0.999) { if (is.na(mu)) { print("You have assumed that the serial distribution is unknown.") res <- WP_unknown(NT, B = search$B, shape.max = search$shape.max, scale.max = search$scale.max, tol = tol) Rhat <- res$Rhat p <- res$p range.max <- res$range.max JJ <- res$JJ } else { print("You have assumed that the serial distribution is known.") range.max <- ceiling(qexp(tol, rate = 1 / mu)) p <- diff(pexp(0:range.max, 1 / mu)) p <- p / sum(p) res <- WP_known(NT = NT, p = p) Rhat <- res JJ <- NA } return(list(Rhat = Rhat, check = length(JJ), SD = list(supp = 1:range.max, pmf = p))) }