#' ID method #' #' This function implements a least squares estimation method of R0 due to Fisman et al. (PloS One, 2013). #' See details for implementation notes. #' #' The method is based on a straightforward incidence decay model. The estimate of R0 is the value which #' minimizes the sum of squares between observed case counts and cases counts 'expected' under the model. #' #' This method is based on an approximation of the SIR model, which is most valid at the beginning of an epidemic. #' The method assumes that the mean of the serial distribution (sometimes called the serial interval) is known. #' The final estimate can be quite sensitive to this value, so sensitivity testing is strongly recommended. #' Users should be careful about units of time (e.g. are counts observed daily or weekly?) when implementing. #' #' @param NT Vector of case counts #' @param mu Mean of the serial distribution (needs to match case counts in time units; for example, if case counts are #' weekly and the serial distribution has a mean of seven days, then \code{mu} should be set to one, if case #' counts are daily and the serial distribution has a mean of seven days, then \code{mu} should be set to seven) #' #' @return \code{ID} returns a list containing the following components: \code{Rhat} is the estimate of R0 and #' \code{inputs} is a list of the original input variables \code{NT, mu}. #' #' @examples #' #' ## ===================================================== ## #' ## Illustrate on weekly data ## #' ## ===================================================== ## #' #' NT <- c(1, 4, 10, 5, 3, 4, 19, 3, 3, 14, 4) #' ## obtain Rhat when serial distribution has mean of five days #' res1 <- ID(NT=NT, mu=5/7) #' res1$Rhat #' ## obtain Rhat when serial distribution has mean of three days #' res2 <- ID(NT=NT, mu=3/7) #' res2$Rhat #' #' ## ========================================================= ## #' ## Compute Rhat using only the first five weeks of data ## #' ## ========================================================= ## #' #' #' res3 <- ID(NT=NT[1:5], mu=5/7) # serial distribution has mean of five days #' res3$Rhat #' #' @export ID <- function(NT, mu) { NT <- as.numeric(NT) TT <- length(NT) s <- (1:TT) / mu y <- log(NT) / s R0_ID <- exp(sum(y) / TT) return(list=c(Rhat=R0_ID, inputs=list(NT=NT, mu=mu))) }