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This function implements a least squares estimation method of R0 due to +Fisman et al. (PloS One, 2013). See details for implementation notes.

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Usage

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id(cases, mu)
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Arguments

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cases
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Vector of case counts. The vector must be non-empty and only +contain positive integers.

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mu
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Mean of the serial distribution. This must be a positive number. +The value should match the case counts in time units. For example, if case +counts are weekly and the serial distribution has a mean of seven days, +then mu should be set to 1. If case counts are daily and the serial +distribution has a mean of seven days, then mu should be set to 7.

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Value

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An estimate of the basic reproduction number (R0).

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Details

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The method is based on a straightforward incidence decay model. The estimate +of R0 is the value which minimizes the sum of squares between observed case +counts and cases counts expected under the model.

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This method is based on an approximation of the SIR model, which is most +valid at the beginning of an epidemic. The method assumes that the mean of +the serial distribution (sometimes called the serial interval) is known. The +final estimate can be quite sensitive to this value, so sensitivity testing +is strongly recommended. Users should be careful about units of time (e.g., +are counts observed daily or weekly?) when implementing.

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See also

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idea() for a similar method.

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Examples

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# Weekly data.
+cases <- c(1, 4, 10, 5, 3, 4, 19, 3, 3, 14, 4)
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+# Obtain R0 when the serial distribution has a mean of five days.
+id(cases, mu = 5 / 7)
+#> [1] 1.245734
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+# Obtain R0 when the serial distribution has a mean of three days.
+id(cases, mu = 3 / 7)
+#> [1] 1.14092
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